Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

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• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Iran
  • Turkey
  • Israel
  • Cyprus
  • United Arab Emirates
  • Kuwait
  • Philippines
  • Korea, South
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • China
  • Thailand
  • Taiwan*
  • Azerbaijan

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $94,640$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.03 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96,499.3}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 37.8)}}\) (asimptote \(96,499.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,028$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(623 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,011.6}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(6,011.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,509$ on 2020-04-30

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $120,204$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(9.97 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126,257.3}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 27.6)}}\) (asimptote \(126,257.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,174$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(233 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,588.7}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 28.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,588.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $68,144$ on 2020-04-30

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,946$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.24 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,611.5}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(15,611.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $222$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(24.2 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{225.0}{1 + 10^{-0.074 (t - 23.5)}}\) (asimptote \(225.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,163$ on 2020-04-30

Cyprus⮸

Population $1,207,359$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $850$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(113 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{848.5}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 27.6)}}\) (asimptote \(848.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $15$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(5.18 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13.8}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 10.5)}}\) (asimptote \(13.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $539$ on 2020-04-30

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $12,481$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(85.3 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,579.9}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 59.6)}}\) (asimptote \(15,579.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $105$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(2.46 \times 10^{0.039t}\) (doubling rate \(7.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{378.2}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 51.3)}}\) (asimptote \(378.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,947$ on 2020-04-30

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,024$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(29.9 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,994.7}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 72.5)}}\) (asimptote \(10,994.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.05 \times 10^{0.054t}\) (doubling rate \(5.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30.7}{1 + 10^{-0.110 (t - 20.6)}}\) (asimptote \(30.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,459$ on 2020-04-30

Philippines⮸

Population $109,581,078$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,488$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(900 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,527.3}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 28.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,527.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $568$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(47.6 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{603.2}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 30.2)}}\) (asimptote \(603.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,877$ on 2020-04-30

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,774$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(4.58 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,243.4}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 14.8)}}\) (asimptote \(10,243.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $248$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(46.8 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{257.7}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 32.5)}}\) (asimptote \(257.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,454$ on 2020-04-30

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Thailand recovered 85%
Korea, South recovered 81%
Taiwan* recovered 68%
Iran recovered 61%
Azerbaijan recovered 46%
Uzbekistan recovered 34%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 34%
Malaysia recovered 33%
Israel recovered 27%
Turkey recovered 16%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,956$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(4.65 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(87.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,213.8}{1 + 10^{-0.092 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(82,213.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,637$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.46 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,898.8}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 22.5)}}\) (asimptote \(3,898.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $796$ on 2020-04-30

Thailand⮸

Population $69,799,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,954$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(728 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,868.0}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 18.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,868.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $54$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(18.6 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{53.3}{1 + 10^{-0.080 (t - 10.0)}}\) (asimptote \(53.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $216$ on 2020-04-30

Taiwan*⮸

Population $23,816,775$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $429$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(68.4 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{424.5}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 34.4)}}\) (asimptote \(424.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6$ on 2020-04-30

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $101$ on 2020-04-30

Azerbaijan⮸

Population $10,139,177$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,804$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(140 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,754.5}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 31.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,754.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $24$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(4.13 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27.2}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 21.3)}}\) (asimptote \(27.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $455$ on 2020-04-30